Austria U19 W 1–0 Netherlands U19 W: Result & Stats

Austria U19 W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Netherlands U19 W

V. Mädl 70'

7/21/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Women · Group Stage - 2Centre National de Football Euro 2000

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Austria U19 W46%

×Draw24%

Netherlands U19 W29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria U19 WExpected goals in this matchNetherlands U19 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.25

Austria U19 W

1.63

Netherlands U19 W

1.25

Austria U19 W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

2.50

creates per match

1.50

1.00

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Austria U19 W

2.50

Netherlands U19 W

1.50

allows per match

Austria U19 W

1.00

Netherlands U19 W

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria U19 W+0.00on par

Netherlands U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria U19 W ↓

Netherlands U19 W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Austria U19 W or draw

71%

Austria U19 W or Netherlands U19 W

76%

Draw or Netherlands U19 W

54%

Winning margin

Austria U19 W wins by 2+

24%

Netherlands U19 W wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Austria U19 W 1+ goals

80%

Austria U19 W 2+ goals

48%

Austria U19 W 3+ goals

22%

Netherlands U19 W 1+ goals

71%

Netherlands U19 W 2+ goals

36%

Netherlands U19 W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Austria U19 W (draw refunded)

61%

Netherlands U19 W (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria U19 W at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Netherlands U19 W away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria U19 W attack 2.50 + Netherlands U19 W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Netherlands U19 W attack 1.50 + Austria U19 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Austria U19 W scores more

46%

level

24%

Netherlands U19 W scores more

29%

Austria U19 W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Austria U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

V. Mädl← N. Ojukwu

63'

K. Thomas← R. Lacroix

70'

V. Mädl↳ I. Aistleitner

74'

F. Kroese← Z. Henry

75'

D. Tolhoek← H. Huizenga

82'

L. Spinn← L. Natter

84'

N. Seidl← I. Aistleitner

86'

V. Buurman

90+7'

L. van Oosten

90+5'

I. Schneiderbauer← T. Weiss

Austria

Netherlands

1

5

3

14

2

6

10

8

▼

Lacroix

11

▼

Henry

7

Keukelaar

9

▼

1

3

14

9

▼

Weiss

6

Holl

18

▼

Natter

19

▼

Ojukwu

11

Rukavina

20

Wirnsberg

7

A

▼

Aistleitn

10

Roduner

Manager: J. Spilka

50'▲V. Mädl←▼N. Ojukwu

82'▲L. Spinn←▼L. Natter

84'▲N. Seidl←▼I. Aistleitner

90+5'▲I. Schneiderbauer←▼T. Weiss

Austria U19 W substitutes

13Mädl17Spinn16Seidl4Schneiderbauer5Čavić12Pertl23Schönwetter8Purtscher

Manager: R. Kwakkenbos

63'▲K. Thomas←▼R. Lacroix

74'▲F. Kroese←▼Z. Henry

75'▲D. Tolhoek←▼H. Huizenga

Netherlands U19 W substitutes

15Thomas20Kroese19Tolhoek18Buikema12Frijns17Martina16Eijk