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Austria U19 W vs Finland U19 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Austria U19 W
Austria U19 W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Finland U19 W
Finland U19 W
V. Potzl 80' (pen)
A. Kerschbaumer 37'
D. Lueger 15'
3/2/2026Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Austria U19 W58%
×Draw21%
Finland U19 W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria U19 W
2.00
Finland U19 W
1.08

Austria U19 W creates 85% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Austria U19 W
2.00
Finland U19 W
0.83

allows per match

Austria U19 W
1.33
Finland U19 W
2.00

finishing

Austria U19 W+0.00on par
Finland U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria U19 W ↓

Finland U19 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Austria U19 W or draw
80%
Austria U19 W or Finland U19 W
79%
Draw or Finland U19 W
42%

Winning margin

Austria U19 W wins by 2+
35%
Finland U19 W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Austria U19 W 1+ goals
86%
Austria U19 W 2+ goals
59%
Austria U19 W 3+ goals
32%
Finland U19 W 1+ goals
66%
Finland U19 W 2+ goals
29%
Finland U19 W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Austria U19 W (draw refunded)
74%
Finland U19 W (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria U19 W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Finland U19 W away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria U19 W attack 2.00 + Finland U19 W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Finland U19 W attack 0.83 + Austria U19 W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Austria U19 W scores more
58%
level
21%
Finland U19 W scores more
20%

Austria U19 W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Austria U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
D. Lueger
37'
A. Kerschbaumer
80'
V. PotzlPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Austria U19 W 3–0 Finland U19 W

Austria U19 W beat Finland U19 W 3-0 in Friendlies Women on March 2, 2026.

Goals: D. Lueger (15'), A. Kerschbaumer (37'), V. Potzl (80' pen).