Austria U19 3–0 Sweden U19: Result & Stats

Austria U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sweden U19

E. Music 90'

T. Fidjeu-Tazemeta 62'

M. Hammerle 27' (pen)

3/28/2026

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 1DFB Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Austria U1960%

×Draw22%

Sweden U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria U19Expected goals in this matchSweden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.93

Austria U19

1.89

Sweden U19

0.93

Austria U19 creates 103% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

2.06

creates per match

1.29

0.56

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Austria U19

2.06

Sweden U19

1.29

allows per match

Austria U19

0.56

Sweden U19

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria U19+0.00on par

Sweden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria U19 ↓

Sweden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Austria U19 or draw

82%

Austria U19 or Sweden U19

78%

Draw or Sweden U19

40%

Winning margin

Austria U19 wins by 2+

35%

Sweden U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Austria U19 1+ goals

85%

Austria U19 2+ goals

56%

Austria U19 3+ goals

29%

Sweden U19 1+ goals

61%

Sweden U19 2+ goals

24%

Sweden U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Austria U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Sweden U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria U19 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Sweden U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria U19 attack 2.06 + Sweden U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.89

Sweden U19 attack 1.29 + Austria U19 defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Austria U19 scores more

60%

level

22%

Sweden U19 scores more

18%

Austria U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Austria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

A. Lahdo

22'

M. Hammerle

27'

M. Tuka

27'

M. HammerlePenalty

31'

40'

45+1'

46'

46'

M. Ljungqvist← M. Tuka

54'

N. O. Jonsson

62'

T. Fidjeu-Tazemeta

69'

L. Arrhov

71'

A. Andersson← O. Kapsimalis

72'

M. Vucenovic← N. O. Jonsson

73'

R. Morth← M. Hammerle

84'

T. Schandl← P. Maybach

85'

D. Mahiya← O. Adejenughure

90+1'

T. Schandl

90+2'

J. Ilk← T. Fidjeu-Tazemeta

90'

E. Music

Austria

Sweden

1

2

4

3

5

▼

Tuka

18

Geiger

6

▼

Lahdo

10

Arrhov

7

▼

Jonsson

11

Oppong

20

▼

1

2

4

14

18

11

⚽

▼

Fidjeu-Ta

6

▼

Maybach

16

Spalt

9

▼

Adejenugh

10

⚽

Music

17

⚽

▼

Hammerle

Manager: O. Lederer

73'▲R. Morth←▼M. Hammerle

84'▲T. Schandl←▼P. Maybach

85'▲D. Mahiya←▼O. Adejenughure

90+2'▲J. Ilk←▼T. Fidjeu-Tazemeta

Austria U19 substitutes

21Kurz5Zinner7Morth13Ilk15Schandl19Djordjevic20Hangl22Mahiya

Manager: A. Pettersson

31'▲A. Nordin←▼A. Lahdo

46'▲M. Ljungqvist←▼M. Tuka

71'▲A. Andersson←▼O. Kapsimalis

72'▲M. Vucenovic←▼N. O. Jonsson

Sweden U19 substitutes

12Persson8Nordin9Andersson13Sandberg14Ljungqvist15Vucenovic16Nordvall17Bozicevic19Isso

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Austria U19 3–0 Sweden U19

Austria U19 beat Sweden U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 28, 2026.

Goals: M. Hammerle (27' pen), T. Fidjeu-Tazemeta (62'), E. Music (90').

The match was played at DFB Campus in Frankfurt.

Austria U19 vs Sweden U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Austria U19 3–0 Sweden U19