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Austria U19 vs Serbia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Austria U19
Austria U19
CANC
12:00
Serbia U19
Serbia U19
9/2/2020UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 2Rodney Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Austria U1972%
×Draw15%
Serbia U1913%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria U19
2.92
Serbia U19
1.17

Austria U19 creates 150% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Austria U19
3.67
Serbia U19
1.50

allows per match

Austria U19
0.83
Serbia U19
2.17

finishing

Austria U19+0.00on par
Serbia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria U19 ↓

Serbia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Austria U19 or draw
87%
Austria U19 or Serbia U19
85%
Draw or Serbia U19
28%

Winning margin

Austria U19 wins by 2+
52%
Serbia U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Austria U19 1+ goals
94%
Austria U19 2+ goals
78%
Austria U19 3+ goals
55%
Serbia U19 1+ goals
69%
Serbia U19 2+ goals
33%
Serbia U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Austria U19 (draw refunded)
85%
Serbia U19 (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria U19 at home — creates 3.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Serbia U19 away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria U19 attack 3.67 + Serbia U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.92

Serbia U19 attack 1.50 + Austria U19 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Austria U19 scores more
72%
level
15%
Serbia U19 scores more
13%

Austria U19 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Austria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Austria U19 face Serbia U19 (UEFA U19 Championship)

UEFA U19 Championship returns with Austria U19 hosting Serbia U19. Match starts September 2, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Austria U19 host Serbia U19 at Rodney Parade.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.