Austria U19 1–0 Montenegro U19: Result & Stats

Austria U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Montenegro U19

B. Scharner 28'

10/14/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2Stadion Pod Goricom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Austria U1961%

×Draw23%

Montenegro U1916%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria U19Expected goals in this matchMontenegro U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.78

Austria U19

1.77

Montenegro U19

0.78

Austria U19 creates 127% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

2.06

creates per match

1.00

0.56

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Austria U19

2.06

Montenegro U19

1.00

allows per match

Austria U19

0.56

Montenegro U19

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria U19+0.00on par

Montenegro U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria U19 ↓

Montenegro U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Austria U19 or draw

84%

Austria U19 or Montenegro U19

77%

Draw or Montenegro U19

39%

Winning margin

Austria U19 wins by 2+

35%

Montenegro U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Austria U19 1+ goals

83%

Austria U19 2+ goals

53%

Austria U19 3+ goals

26%

Montenegro U19 1+ goals

54%

Montenegro U19 2+ goals

18%

Montenegro U19 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Austria U19 (draw refunded)

79%

Montenegro U19 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria U19 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Montenegro U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria U19 attack 2.06 + Montenegro U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.77

Montenegro U19 attack 1.00 + Austria U19 defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Austria U19 scores more

61%

level

23%

Montenegro U19 scores more

16%

Austria U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Austria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

A. Bulatovic

22'

L. Bubanja← L. Maraš

28'

B. Scharner

37'

L. Lecic

41'

L. Bubanja

45+1'

B. Scharner

46'

B. Mrvaljević← M. Vračar

63'

M. Schablas← D. Puczka

63'

T. Trummer← M. Neumann

66'

D. Madritsch

71'

M. Moswitzer← D. Madritsch

74'

J. M. Scholler

76'

D. Miranović← V. Ljutica

83'

F. Dursun← L. Grgić

83'

K. Lebersorger← B. Scharner

90'

S. Đukanović← S. Golubović

Austria

Montenegro

1

Krijestar

15

Vračar

21

▼

Vračar

5

Tomašević

3

▼

Maraš

4

Lečić

7

Perović

2

▼

Ljutica

10

Bulatović

16

Medojević

9

▼

Golubović

1

Jusic

5

Radonjic

17

▼

Puczka

3

Schöller

6

▼

2

20

14

8

⚽

▼

Scharner

11

▼

Neumann

19

▼

Grgić

Manager: O. Lederer

63'▲M. Schablas←▼D. Puczka

63'▲T. Trummer←▼M. Neumann

71'▲M. Moswitzer←▼D. Madritsch

83'▲F. Dursun←▼L. Grgić

83'▲K. Lebersorger←▼B. Scharner

Austria U19 substitutes

4Schablas12Trummer18Moswitzer9Dursun16Lebersorger21Göschl13Kordic10Osmani7Jánó

Manager: G. Perišić

22'▲L. Bubanja←▼L. Maraš

46'▲B. Mrvaljević←▼M. Vračar

76'▲D. Miranović←▼V. Ljutica

90'▲S. Đukanović←▼S. Golubović

Montenegro U19 substitutes

17Bubanja11Mrvaljević6Miranović8Đukanović20Camaj14Vujović19Roganović12Bobičić18Radojević

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Austria U19 1–0 Montenegro U19

Austria U19 beat Montenegro U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 14, 2023.

Goals: B. Scharner (28').

The match was played at Stadion Pod Goricom in Podgorica.

Austria U19 vs Montenegro U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Austria U19 1–0 Montenegro U19