Austria U19 2–0 Lithuania U19: Result & Stats

Austria U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lithuania U19

M. Wels 62'

L. Reischl 44'

9/21/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Austria U1968%

×Draw20%

Lithuania U1912%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria U19Expected goals in this matchLithuania U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.67

Austria U19

1.96

Lithuania U19

0.67

Austria U19 creates 193% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

2.06

creates per match

0.77

0.56

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Austria U19

2.06

Lithuania U19

0.77

allows per match

Austria U19

0.56

Lithuania U19

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria U19+0.00on par

Lithuania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria U19 ↓

Lithuania U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Austria U19 or draw

88%

Austria U19 or Lithuania U19

80%

Draw or Lithuania U19

32%

Winning margin

Austria U19 wins by 2+

42%

Lithuania U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Austria U19 1+ goals

86%

Austria U19 2+ goals

58%

Austria U19 3+ goals

31%

Lithuania U19 1+ goals

49%

Lithuania U19 2+ goals

15%

Lithuania U19 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Austria U19 (draw refunded)

85%

Lithuania U19 (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria U19 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Lithuania U19 away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria U19 attack 2.06 + Lithuania U19 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.96

Lithuania U19 attack 0.77 + Austria U19 defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Austria U19 scores more

68%

level

20%

Lithuania U19 scores more

12%

Austria U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Austria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

L. Wimhofer

44'

L. Reischl

60'

M. Skirmantas← K. Bička

62'

M. Wels

68'

D. Dizdarević← L. Reischl

75'

N. Lang← E. Tepecik

75'

T. Sahin← A. Oda

85'

D. Šluta← M. Džiugas

85'

M. Perveinis← N. Lukšys

88'

T. Scharmer← M. Pejazic

88'

V. Spari← N. Bajlicz

Austria

Lithuania

12

4

2

3

10

16

▼

Džiugas

7

▼

Bička

23

Andriuške

8

Gineitis

11

▼

19

1

5

12

3

▼

Pejazic

14

▼

Bajlicz

19

▼

Tepecik

15

⚽

Wels

16

Wimhofer

7

▼

Oda

6

Sattlberg

9

⚽

▼

Reischl

Manager: H. Stadler

68'▲D. Dizdarević←▼L. Reischl

75'▲N. Lang←▼E. Tepecik

75'▲T. Sahin←▼A. Oda

88'▲T. Scharmer←▼M. Pejazic

88'▲V. Spari←▼N. Bajlicz

Austria U19 substitutes

20Dizdarević11Lang17Sahin13Scharmer10Spari8Mayer18Sams21Orgler4Abazović

Manager: T. Ražanauskas

60'▲M. Skirmantas←▼K. Bička

85'▲D. Šluta←▼M. Džiugas

85'▲M. Perveinis←▼N. Lukšys

Lithuania U19 substitutes

20Skirmantas6Šluta9Perveinis18Stankevičius15Ževžikovas17Kaušinis5Paliušis13Nainys1Kiriejevas