Austria U19 0–0 Latvia U19: Result & Stats

Austria U19

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Latvia U19

9/24/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3Centrul de Fotbal Buftea Teren Natural

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Austria U1964%

×Draw22%

Latvia U1915%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria U19Expected goals in this matchLatvia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

0.76

Austria U19

1.87

Latvia U19

0.76

Austria U19 creates 146% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

2.06

creates per match

0.95

0.56

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Austria U19

2.06

Latvia U19

0.95

allows per match

Austria U19

0.56

Latvia U19

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria U19+0.00on par

Latvia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria U19 ↓

Latvia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Austria U19 or draw

85%

Austria U19 or Latvia U19

78%

Draw or Latvia U19

36%

Winning margin

Austria U19 wins by 2+

38%

Latvia U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Austria U19 1+ goals

85%

Austria U19 2+ goals

56%

Austria U19 3+ goals

29%

Latvia U19 1+ goals

53%

Latvia U19 2+ goals

18%

Latvia U19 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Austria U19 (draw refunded)

81%

Latvia U19 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria U19 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Latvia U19 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria U19 attack 2.06 + Latvia U19 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.87

Latvia U19 attack 0.95 + Austria U19 defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Austria U19 scores more

64%

level

22%

Latvia U19 scores more

15%

Austria U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Austria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

M. Zwickl

39'

G. Zaleiko

45'

N. Lang← L. Reischl

67'

D. Dizdarević← N. Bajlicz

68'

M. Alpēns← B. Melnis

77'

A. Muradjans← D. Sirbu

78'

E. Tepecik

83'

V. Spari← E. Tepecik

90+4'

K. Volkovs← Ņ. Pašņevs

Austria

Latvia

1

2

4

13

6

18

9

▼

Pašņevs

7

Žaleiko

11

▼

Sirbu

20

Lizunovs

10

▼

1

5

12

4

14

▼

Bajlicz

19

▼

15

7

6

13

9

▼

Reischl

Manager: H. Stadler

45'▲N. Lang←▼L. Reischl

67'▲D. Dizdarević←▼N. Bajlicz

83'▲V. Spari←▼E. Tepecik

Austria U19 substitutes

11Lang20Dizdarević10Spari8Mayer18Sams21Orgler16Wimhofer3Pejazic17Sahin

Manager: J. Dovalils

68'▲M. Alpēns←▼B. Melnis

77'▲A. Muradjans←▼D. Sirbu

90+4'▲K. Volkovs←▼Ņ. Pašņevs

Latvia U19 substitutes

8Alpēns14Muradjans5Volkovs23Veisbuks15Vējkrīgers19Kačanovs16Patika3Semeško