Austria U19 2–2 Germany U19: Result & Stats

Austria U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Germany U19

3/31/2026

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualification - Round 1 - League A - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Austria U1942%

×Draw24%

Germany U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria U19Expected goals in this matchGermany U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.42

Austria U19

1.62

Germany U19

1.42

Austria U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

2.06

creates per match

2.27

0.56

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Austria U19

2.06

Germany U19

2.27

allows per match

Austria U19

0.56

Germany U19

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria U19+0.00on par

Germany U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria U19 ↓

Germany U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Austria U19 or draw

66%

Austria U19 or Germany U19

76%

Draw or Germany U19

58%

Winning margin

Austria U19 wins by 2+

21%

Germany U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Austria U19 1+ goals

80%

Austria U19 2+ goals

48%

Austria U19 3+ goals

22%

Germany U19 1+ goals

76%

Germany U19 2+ goals

41%

Germany U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Austria U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Germany U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria U19 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Germany U19 away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria U19 attack 2.06 + Germany U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.62

Germany U19 attack 2.27 + Austria U19 defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Austria U19 scores more

42%

level

24%

Germany U19 scores more

34%

Austria U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Austria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff