Austria U19 1–2 Denmark U19: Result & Stats

Austria U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Denmark U19

Y. Spalt 55'

M. Krüger-Johnsen 74'

L. Larsen 69'

3/25/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Bocskai Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Austria U1936%

×Draw24%

Denmark U1940%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria U19Expected goals in this matchDenmark U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.53

Austria U19

1.45

Denmark U19

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

2.06

creates per match

2.50

0.56

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Austria U19

2.06

Denmark U19

2.50

allows per match

Austria U19

0.56

Denmark U19

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria U19+0.00on par

Denmark U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria U19 ↓

Denmark U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Austria U19 or draw

60%

Austria U19 or Denmark U19

76%

Draw or Denmark U19

64%

Winning margin

Austria U19 wins by 2+

17%

Denmark U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Austria U19 1+ goals

77%

Austria U19 2+ goals

42%

Austria U19 3+ goals

18%

Denmark U19 1+ goals

78%

Denmark U19 2+ goals

45%

Denmark U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Austria U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Denmark U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria U19 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Denmark U19 away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria U19 attack 2.06 + Denmark U19 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.45

Denmark U19 attack 2.50 + Austria U19 defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Austria U19 scores more

36%

level

24%

Denmark U19 scores more

40%

Denmark U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Denmark U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

T. Breum-Harild

12'

M. van der Raad← M. Walker

55'

Y. Spalt

61'

L. Callø← M. Themsen

62'

L. Szladits← Y. Mankan

66'

69'

70'

74'

78'

J. Živković← J. Brandtner

80'

J. Nielsen← J. Janssen

80'

N. Juul-Sandberg← M. Krüger-Johnsen

84'

V. Zabransky← F. Feiner

86'

L. Callo

89'

L. Larsen

Austria

Denmark

16

5

2

3

13

⚽

Larsen

20

▼

Walker

17

▼

Themsen

18

Berthelse

7

▼

Janssen

9

⚽

▼

Krüger-Jo

11

Schwartau

1

Hamzić

14

▼

Brandtner

4

Schuster

18

▼

16

2

6

17

⚽

Spalt

7

Grgić

9

▼

Mankan

19

Adejenugh

Manager: O. Lederer

62'▲L. Szladits←▼Y. Mankan

78'▲J. Živković←▼J. Brandtner

84'▲V. Zabransky←▼F. Feiner

Austria U19 substitutes

8Szladits10Živković3Zabransky20Đezić13Vojic11Izderić23Šarčević5Pirker

Manager: L. Stensgaard

12'▲M. van der Raad←▼M. Walker

61'▲L. Callø←▼M. Themsen

80'▲J. Nielsen←▼J. Janssen

80'▲N. Juul-Sandberg←▼M. Krüger-Johnsen

Denmark U19 substitutes

1Raad4Callø6Nielsen15Juul-Sandberg8Jensen14Kannegaard12Bødker19Tchamche10Jensen

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Austria U19 1–2 Denmark U19

Denmark U19 beat Austria U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 25, 2025.

Goals: Y. Spalt (55'), L. Larsen (69'), M. Krüger-Johnsen (74').

The match was played at Bocskai Stadion in Hajdúszoboszló.

Austria U19 vs Denmark U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Austria U19 1–2 Denmark U19