Austria U19 1–1 Belarus U19: Result & Stats

Austria U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Belarus U19

N. Wiesinger 45+3'

D. Latykhov 83' (pen)

10/9/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 2ETO Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Austria U1968%

×Draw20%

Belarus U1912%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria U19Expected goals in this matchBelarus U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

0.72

Austria U19

2.03

Belarus U19

0.72

Austria U19 creates 182% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 8 away

2.06

creates per match

0.88

0.56

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Austria U19

2.06

Belarus U19

0.88

allows per match

Austria U19

0.56

Belarus U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria U19+0.00on par

Belarus U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria U19 ↓

Belarus U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Austria U19 or draw

88%

Austria U19 or Belarus U19

80%

Draw or Belarus U19

32%

Winning margin

Austria U19 wins by 2+

43%

Belarus U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Austria U19 1+ goals

87%

Austria U19 2+ goals

60%

Austria U19 3+ goals

33%

Belarus U19 1+ goals

51%

Belarus U19 2+ goals

16%

Belarus U19 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Austria U19 (draw refunded)

85%

Belarus U19 (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria U19 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Belarus U19 away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria U19 attack 2.06 + Belarus U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.03

Belarus U19 attack 0.88 + Austria U19 defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Austria U19 scores more

68%

level

20%

Belarus U19 scores more

12%

Austria U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Austria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+3'

N. Wiesinger

46'

A. Jasic← E. Omic

46'

J. Omoregie← N. Wiesinger

46'

M. Huskovic← D. Weixelbraun

46'

N. Veratschnig← L. Coco

56'

A. Shumanskiy← E. Karpitskiy

74'

A. Kabyshev← Y. Kuznetsov

74'

M. Kunskiy← A. Kuzmich

77'

P. Wydra← E. Havel

83'

D. LatykhovPenalty

90+3'

E. Shedko← D. Latykhov

Austria

Belarus

1

15

5

9

6

▼

8

19

4

10

⚽

▼

Latykhov

21

▼

Kuzmich

7

▼

1

4

5

16

18

15

⚽

▼

Wiesinger

6

▼

Omic

17

▼

Coco

10

Babuscu

11

▼

Weixelbra

9

▼

Havel

Manager: M. Scherb

46'▲A. Jasic←▼E. Omic

46'▲J. Omoregie←▼N. Wiesinger

46'▲M. Huskovic←▼D. Weixelbraun

46'▲N. Veratschnig←▼L. Coco

77'▲P. Wydra←▼E. Havel

Austria U19 substitutes

20Jasic13Omoregie7Huskovic22Veratschnig19Wydra8Metu14Querfeld21Moser3Kapsamer

Manager: V. Korytko

56'▲A. Shumanskiy←▼E. Karpitskiy

74'▲A. Kabyshev←▼Y. Kuznetsov

74'▲M. Kunskiy←▼A. Kuzmich

90+3'▲E. Shedko←▼D. Latykhov

Belarus U19 substitutes

18Shumanskiy2Kabyshev11Kunskiy14Shedko3Tumanau13Dushevskiy12Seledtsov20Krivtsov17Pranovich

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Austria U19 1–1 Belarus U19

Austria U19 and Belarus U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 9, 2021.

Goals: N. Wiesinger (45+3'), D. Latykhov (83' pen).

The match was played at ETO Park in Győr.

Austria U19 vs Belarus U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Austria U19 1–1 Belarus U19