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Austria U17 vs Andorra U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Austria U17
Austria U17
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Andorra U17
Andorra U17
10/20/2022UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Austria U1776%
×Draw16%
Andorra U178%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria U17
2.40
Andorra U17
0.64

Austria U17 creates 275% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Austria U17
1.93
Andorra U17
0.14

allows per match

Austria U17
1.14
Andorra U17
2.86

finishing

Austria U17+0.00on par
Andorra U17+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria U17 ↓

Andorra U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Austria U17 or draw
92%
Austria U17 or Andorra U17
84%
Draw or Andorra U17
24%

Winning margin

Austria U17 wins by 2+
53%
Andorra U17 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Austria U17 1+ goals
91%
Austria U17 2+ goals
69%
Austria U17 3+ goals
42%
Andorra U17 1+ goals
47%
Andorra U17 2+ goals
14%
Andorra U17 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Austria U17 (draw refunded)
90%
Andorra U17 (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria U17 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Andorra U17 away — creates 0.14, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria U17 attack 1.93 + Andorra U17 defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.40

Andorra U17 attack 0.14 + Austria U17 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Austria U17 scores more
76%
level
16%
Andorra U17 scores more
8%

Austria U17 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Austria U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Austria U17 2–0 Andorra U17

Austria U17 beat Andorra U17 2-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on October 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego in Toruń.