Austria Salzburg 1–0 Pinzgau Saalfelden

Austria Salzburg

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pinzgau Saalfelden

11/11/2023

Regionalliga - West · West - 16Max-Aicher-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Austria Salzburg70%

×Draw17%

Pinzgau Saalfelden13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria SalzburgExpected goals in this matchPinzgau Saalfelden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

0.97

Austria Salzburg

2.47

Pinzgau Saalfelden

0.97

Austria Salzburg creates 155% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 62 away

3.03

creates per match

0.90

1.03

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Austria Salzburg

3.03

Pinzgau Saalfelden

0.90

allows per match

Austria Salzburg

1.03

Pinzgau Saalfelden

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria Salzburg+0.00on par

Pinzgau Saalfelden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Salzburg ↓

Pinzgau Saalfelden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Austria Salzburg or draw

87%

Austria Salzburg or Pinzgau Saalfelden

83%

Draw or Pinzgau Saalfelden

30%

Winning margin

Austria Salzburg wins by 2+

47%

Pinzgau Saalfelden wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Austria Salzburg 1+ goals

91%

Austria Salzburg 2+ goals

70%

Austria Salzburg 3+ goals

44%

Pinzgau Saalfelden 1+ goals

62%

Pinzgau Saalfelden 2+ goals

25%

Pinzgau Saalfelden 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Austria Salzburg (draw refunded)

84%

Pinzgau Saalfelden (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Salzburg at home — creates 3.03, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Pinzgau Saalfelden away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.92 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Salzburg attack 3.03 + Pinzgau Saalfelden defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.47

Pinzgau Saalfelden attack 0.90 + Austria Salzburg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Austria Salzburg scores more

70%

level

17%

Pinzgau Saalfelden scores more

13%

Austria Salzburg at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Austria Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff