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Austria Salzburg vs Oedt — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Austria Salzburg
Austria Salzburg
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Oedt
Oedt
A. Schwaighofer 53'
Valdir 90'
L. Paulik 82'
B. Worndl 61'
B. Karatas 36'
G. Koritnik 34'
2/15/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Austria Salzburg51%
×Draw22%
Oedt28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Salzburg
2.04
Oedt
1.46

Austria Salzburg creates 40% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Austria Salzburg
1.83
Oedt
1.75

allows per match

Austria Salzburg
1.17
Oedt
2.25

finishing

Austria Salzburg+0.00on par
Oedt+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Salzburg ↓

Oedt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Austria Salzburg or draw
72%
Austria Salzburg or Oedt
78%
Draw or Oedt
49%

Winning margin

Austria Salzburg wins by 2+
30%
Oedt wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Austria Salzburg 1+ goals
87%
Austria Salzburg 2+ goals
60%
Austria Salzburg 3+ goals
33%
Oedt 1+ goals
77%
Oedt 2+ goals
43%
Oedt 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Austria Salzburg (draw refunded)
65%
Oedt (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Salzburg at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Oedt away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Salzburg attack 1.83 + Oedt defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.04

Oedt attack 1.75 + Austria Salzburg defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Austria Salzburg scores more
51%
level
22%
Oedt scores more
28%

Austria Salzburg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Austria Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
G. Koritnik
36'
B. Karatas
53'
A. Schwaighofer
61'
B. Worndl
82'
L. Paulik
90'
Valdir

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Austria Salzburg 1–5 Oedt

Oedt beat Austria Salzburg 5-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 15, 2025.

Goals: G. Koritnik (34'), B. Karatas (36'), A. Schwaighofer (53'), B. Worndl (61'), L. Paulik (82'), Valdir (90').