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Austria Lustenau vs Slovácko — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau
CANC
13:00
Slovácko
Slovácko
1/27/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Austria Lustenau29%
×Draw25%
Slovácko46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Lustenau
1.22
Slovácko
1.61

Slovácko creates 32% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Austria Lustenau
1.54
Slovácko
1.60

allows per match

Austria Lustenau
1.62
Slovácko
0.90

finishing

Austria Lustenau+0.00on par
Slovácko+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Lustenau ↓

Slovácko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Austria Lustenau or draw
54%
Austria Lustenau or Slovácko
75%
Draw or Slovácko
71%

Winning margin

Austria Lustenau wins by 2+
12%
Slovácko wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Austria Lustenau 1+ goals
70%
Austria Lustenau 2+ goals
34%
Austria Lustenau 3+ goals
12%
Slovácko 1+ goals
80%
Slovácko 2+ goals
48%
Slovácko 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)
38%
Slovácko (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Lustenau at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

Slovácko away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Lustenau attack 1.54 + Slovácko defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.22

Slovácko attack 1.60 + Austria Lustenau defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Austria Lustenau scores more
29%
level
25%
Slovácko scores more
46%

Slovácko at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Slovácko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Austria Lustenau face Slovácko (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Austria Lustenau hosting Slovácko. Match starts January 27, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Austria Lustenau host Slovácko at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.