Austria Lustenau 0–5 Rapid Vienna: Result & Stats

Austria Lustenau

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Rapid Vienna

10/7/2023

Bundesliga · Round 10Planet Pure Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Austria Lustenau31%

×Draw24%

Rapid Vienna45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria LustenauExpected goals in this matchRapid Vienna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.71

Austria Lustenau

1.39

Rapid Vienna

1.71

Rapid Vienna creates 23% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 132 away

1.30

creates per match

1.49

1.94

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Austria Lustenau

1.30

Rapid Vienna

1.49

allows per match

Austria Lustenau

1.94

Rapid Vienna

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria Lustenau+0.00on par

Rapid Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Lustenau ↓

Rapid Vienna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Austria Lustenau or draw

55%

Austria Lustenau or Rapid Vienna

76%

Draw or Rapid Vienna

69%

Winning margin

Austria Lustenau wins by 2+

14%

Rapid Vienna wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Austria Lustenau 1+ goals

75%

Austria Lustenau 2+ goals

40%

Austria Lustenau 3+ goals

16%

Rapid Vienna 1+ goals

82%

Rapid Vienna 2+ goals

51%

Rapid Vienna 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)

41%

Rapid Vienna (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Lustenau at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.94 · 33 matches

Rapid Vienna away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.47 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Lustenau attack 1.30 + Rapid Vienna defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.39

Rapid Vienna attack 1.49 + Austria Lustenau defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Austria Lustenau scores more

31%

level

24%

Rapid Vienna scores more

45%

Rapid Vienna at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rapid Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff