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Austria Lustenau vs Austria Klagenfurt — Bundesliga 2018

Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Austria Klagenfurt
Austria Klagenfurt
3/19/2023BundesligaBundesliga · Round 22Planet Pure Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Austria Lustenau39%
×Draw23%
Austria Klagenfurt38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Lustenau
1.64
Austria Klagenfurt
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 65 away

creates per match

Austria Lustenau
1.30
Austria Klagenfurt
1.29

allows per match

Austria Lustenau
1.94
Austria Klagenfurt
1.97

finishing

Austria Lustenau+0.00on par
Austria Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Lustenau ↓

Austria Klagenfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Austria Lustenau or draw
62%
Austria Lustenau or Austria Klagenfurt
77%
Draw or Austria Klagenfurt
61%

Winning margin

Austria Lustenau wins by 2+
20%
Austria Klagenfurt wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Austria Lustenau 1+ goals
81%
Austria Lustenau 2+ goals
49%
Austria Lustenau 3+ goals
23%
Austria Klagenfurt 1+ goals
80%
Austria Klagenfurt 2+ goals
48%
Austria Klagenfurt 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)
51%
Austria Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Lustenau at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.94 · 33 matches

Austria Klagenfurt away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.97 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Lustenau attack 1.30 + Austria Klagenfurt defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.64

Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.29 + Austria Lustenau defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Austria Lustenau scores more
39%
level
23%
Austria Klagenfurt scores more
38%

Austria Lustenau at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Austria Lustenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Austria Lustenau vs Austria Klagenfurt

Austria Lustenau beat Austria Klagenfurt 4-2 in Bundesliga on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Planet Pure Stadion in Lustenau.