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Austria Lustenau II vs Röthis — Regionalliga - West 2018

Austria Lustenau II
Austria Lustenau II
CANC
00:00
Röthis
Röthis
5/15/2021Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · Vorarlberg - 2nd Phase - 10Planet Pure Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Austria Lustenau II36%
×Draw21%
Röthis43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Lustenau II
1.90
Röthis
2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 67 away

creates per match

Austria Lustenau II
1.52
Röthis
1.45

allows per match

Austria Lustenau II
2.72
Röthis
2.27

finishing

Austria Lustenau II+0.00on par
Röthis+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Lustenau II ↓

Röthis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Austria Lustenau II or draw
57%
Austria Lustenau II or Röthis
79%
Draw or Röthis
64%

Winning margin

Austria Lustenau II wins by 2+
19%
Röthis wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Austria Lustenau II 1+ goals
85%
Austria Lustenau II 2+ goals
56%
Austria Lustenau II 3+ goals
29%
Röthis 1+ goals
87%
Röthis 2+ goals
61%
Röthis 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Austria Lustenau II (draw refunded)
46%
Röthis (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Lustenau II at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.72 · 25 matches

Röthis away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.27 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Lustenau II attack 1.52 + Röthis defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.90

Röthis attack 1.45 + Austria Lustenau II defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Austria Lustenau II scores more
36%
level
21%
Röthis scores more
43%

Röthis at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Röthis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Austria Lustenau II face Röthis (Regionalliga - West)

Regionalliga - West returns with Austria Lustenau II hosting Röthis. Match starts May 15, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Austria Lustenau II host Röthis at Planet Pure Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.