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Austria Lustenau II vs Bezau — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Austria Lustenau II
Austria Lustenau II
FT
4 – 2
Bezau
Bezau
9/16/2022Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 10Planet Pure Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Austria Lustenau II53%
×Draw20%
Bezau27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Lustenau II
2.23
Bezau
1.55

Austria Lustenau II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 46 away

creates per match

Austria Lustenau II
2.00
Bezau
1.30

allows per match

Austria Lustenau II
1.80
Bezau
2.46

finishing

Austria Lustenau II+0.00on par
Bezau+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Lustenau II ↓

Bezau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Austria Lustenau II or draw
73%
Austria Lustenau II or Bezau
80%
Draw or Bezau
47%

Winning margin

Austria Lustenau II wins by 2+
32%
Bezau wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Austria Lustenau II 1+ goals
89%
Austria Lustenau II 2+ goals
65%
Austria Lustenau II 3+ goals
38%
Bezau 1+ goals
79%
Bezau 2+ goals
46%
Bezau 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Austria Lustenau II (draw refunded)
66%
Bezau (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Lustenau II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.80 · 41 matches

Bezau away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Lustenau II attack 2.00 + Bezau defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.23

Bezau attack 1.30 + Austria Lustenau II defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Austria Lustenau II scores more
53%
level
20%
Bezau scores more
27%

Austria Lustenau II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Austria Lustenau II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga: Austria Lustenau II 4–2 Bezau

Austria Lustenau II beat Bezau 4-2 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on September 16, 2022.

The match was played at Planet Pure Stadion in Lustenau.