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Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz II — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Austria Klagenfurt
Austria Klagenfurt
FT
3 – 1
Sturm Graz II
Sturm Graz II
1/24/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportplatz SV Moosburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Austria Klagenfurt42%
×Draw22%
Sturm Graz II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Klagenfurt
1.88
Sturm Graz II
1.71

Austria Klagenfurt creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Austria Klagenfurt
2.08
Sturm Graz II
1.56

allows per match

Austria Klagenfurt
1.85
Sturm Graz II
1.67

finishing

Austria Klagenfurt+0.00on par
Sturm Graz II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Klagenfurt ↓

Sturm Graz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Austria Klagenfurt or draw
64%
Austria Klagenfurt or Sturm Graz II
78%
Draw or Sturm Graz II
58%

Winning margin

Austria Klagenfurt wins by 2+
23%
Sturm Graz II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Austria Klagenfurt 1+ goals
85%
Austria Klagenfurt 2+ goals
56%
Austria Klagenfurt 3+ goals
29%
Sturm Graz II 1+ goals
82%
Sturm Graz II 2+ goals
51%
Sturm Graz II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Austria Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
54%
Sturm Graz II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Klagenfurt at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Sturm Graz II away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Klagenfurt attack 2.08 + Sturm Graz II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.88

Sturm Graz II attack 1.56 + Austria Klagenfurt defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Austria Klagenfurt scores more
42%
level
22%
Sturm Graz II scores more
36%

Austria Klagenfurt at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Austria Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz II

Austria Klagenfurt beat Sturm Graz II 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 24, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz SV Moosburg in Moosburg.