Austria Klagenfurt 4–3 Red Bull Salzburg

Austria Klagenfurt

FT

4 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Red Bull Salzburg

4/24/2024

Bundesliga · Championship Round - 6Wörthersee Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Austria Klagenfurt22%

×Draw22%

Red Bull Salzburg56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria KlagenfurtExpected goals in this matchRed Bull Salzburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.94

Austria Klagenfurt

1.14

Red Bull Salzburg

1.94

Red Bull Salzburg creates 70% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 128 away

1.26

creates per match

2.15

1.72

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Austria Klagenfurt

1.26

Red Bull Salzburg

2.15

allows per match

Austria Klagenfurt

1.72

Red Bull Salzburg

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Klagenfurt ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Austria Klagenfurt or draw

44%

Austria Klagenfurt or Red Bull Salzburg

78%

Draw or Red Bull Salzburg

78%

Winning margin

Austria Klagenfurt wins by 2+

8%

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Austria Klagenfurt 1+ goals

68%

Austria Klagenfurt 2+ goals

32%

Austria Klagenfurt 3+ goals

11%

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

86%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

58%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Austria Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

28%

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.72 · 65 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.01 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.26 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.14

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.15 + Austria Klagenfurt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Austria Klagenfurt scores more

22%

level

22%

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

56%

Red Bull Salzburg at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff