Austria Klagenfurt 3–2 NK Domzale: Result & Stats

Austria Klagenfurt

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

NK Domzale

1/13/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportplatz SV Moosburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Austria Klagenfurt45%

×Draw23%

NK Domzale32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria KlagenfurtExpected goals in this matchNK Domzale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.43

Austria Klagenfurt

1.74

NK Domzale

1.43

Austria Klagenfurt creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

2.08

creates per match

1.00

1.85

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Austria Klagenfurt

2.08

NK Domzale

1.00

allows per match

Austria Klagenfurt

1.85

NK Domzale

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria Klagenfurt+0.00on par

NK Domzale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Klagenfurt ↓

NK Domzale →

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Austria Klagenfurt or draw

68%

Austria Klagenfurt or NK Domzale

77%

Draw or NK Domzale

55%

Winning margin

Austria Klagenfurt wins by 2+

24%

NK Domzale wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Austria Klagenfurt 1+ goals

82%

Austria Klagenfurt 2+ goals

52%

Austria Klagenfurt 3+ goals

25%

NK Domzale 1+ goals

76%

NK Domzale 2+ goals

42%

NK Domzale 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Austria Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

59%

NK Domzale (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Austria Klagenfurt at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

NK Domzale away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Austria Klagenfurt attack 2.08 + NK Domzale defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.74

NK Domzale attack 1.00 + Austria Klagenfurt defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Austria Klagenfurt scores more

45%

level

23%

NK Domzale scores more

32%

Austria Klagenfurt at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Austria Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Austria Klagenfurt vs NK Domzale

Austria Klagenfurt beat NK Domzale 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz SV Moosburg in Moosburg.

Austria Klagenfurt vs NK Domzale — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Austria Klagenfurt vs NK Domzale