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Austria Klagenfurt vs Maria Saal — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Austria Klagenfurt
Austria Klagenfurt
CANC
21:00
Maria Saal
Maria Saal
5/16/2021Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 26Sportplatz KAC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Austria Klagenfurt45%
×Draw22%
Maria Saal33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Klagenfurt
1.88
Maria Saal
1.57

Austria Klagenfurt creates 20% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 49 away

creates per match

Austria Klagenfurt
1.24
Maria Saal
1.43

allows per match

Austria Klagenfurt
1.72
Maria Saal
2.53

finishing

Austria Klagenfurt+0.00on par
Maria Saal+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Klagenfurt ↓

Maria Saal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Austria Klagenfurt or draw
67%
Austria Klagenfurt or Maria Saal
78%
Draw or Maria Saal
55%

Winning margin

Austria Klagenfurt wins by 2+
25%
Maria Saal wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Austria Klagenfurt 1+ goals
85%
Austria Klagenfurt 2+ goals
56%
Austria Klagenfurt 3+ goals
29%
Maria Saal 1+ goals
79%
Maria Saal 2+ goals
46%
Maria Saal 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Austria Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
58%
Maria Saal (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

Maria Saal away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.53 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.24 + Maria Saal defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.88

Maria Saal attack 1.43 + Austria Klagenfurt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Austria Klagenfurt scores more
45%
level
22%
Maria Saal scores more
33%

Austria Klagenfurt at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Austria Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Austria Klagenfurt face Maria Saal (Landesliga - Karnten)

Landesliga - Karnten returns with Austria Klagenfurt hosting Maria Saal. Match starts May 16, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Austria Klagenfurt host Maria Saal at Sportplatz KAC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.