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Austria Klagenfurt vs Lask Linz — Bundesliga 2018

Austria Klagenfurt
Austria Klagenfurt
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lask Linz
Lask Linz
5/5/2024BundesligaBundesliga · Championship Round - 8Wörthersee Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Austria Klagenfurt29%
×Draw25%
Lask Linz46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Klagenfurt
1.24
Lask Linz
1.62

Lask Linz creates 31% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 130 away

creates per match

Austria Klagenfurt
1.26
Lask Linz
1.52

allows per match

Austria Klagenfurt
1.72
Lask Linz
1.22

finishing

Austria Klagenfurt+0.00on par
Lask Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Klagenfurt ↓

Lask Linz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Austria Klagenfurt or draw
54%
Austria Klagenfurt or Lask Linz
75%
Draw or Lask Linz
71%

Winning margin

Austria Klagenfurt wins by 2+
12%
Lask Linz wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Austria Klagenfurt 1+ goals
71%
Austria Klagenfurt 2+ goals
35%
Austria Klagenfurt 3+ goals
13%
Lask Linz 1+ goals
80%
Lask Linz 2+ goals
48%
Lask Linz 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Austria Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
39%
Lask Linz (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.72 · 65 matches

Lask Linz away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.26 + Lask Linz defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.24

Lask Linz attack 1.52 + Austria Klagenfurt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Austria Klagenfurt scores more
29%
level
25%
Lask Linz scores more
46%

Lask Linz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lask Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Austria Klagenfurt vs Lask Linz

Lask Linz beat Austria Klagenfurt 2-0 in Bundesliga on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Wörthersee Stadion in Klagenfurt am Wörthersee.