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Austria Klagenfurt II vs St. Jakob Rosental — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Austria Klagenfurt II
Austria Klagenfurt II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
St. Jakob Rosental
St. Jakob Rosental
5/16/2025Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 27Sportpark Klagenfurt Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Austria Klagenfurt II46%
×Draw23%
St. Jakob Rosental31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Klagenfurt II
1.75
St. Jakob Rosental
1.39

Austria Klagenfurt II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 76 away

creates per match

Austria Klagenfurt II
1.95
St. Jakob Rosental
1.51

allows per match

Austria Klagenfurt II
1.27
St. Jakob Rosental
1.55

finishing

Austria Klagenfurt II+0.00on par
St. Jakob Rosental+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Klagenfurt II ↓

St. Jakob Rosental →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Austria Klagenfurt II or draw
69%
Austria Klagenfurt II or St. Jakob Rosental
77%
Draw or St. Jakob Rosental
54%

Winning margin

Austria Klagenfurt II wins by 2+
25%
St. Jakob Rosental wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Austria Klagenfurt II 1+ goals
83%
Austria Klagenfurt II 2+ goals
52%
Austria Klagenfurt II 3+ goals
25%
St. Jakob Rosental 1+ goals
75%
St. Jakob Rosental 2+ goals
40%
St. Jakob Rosental 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Austria Klagenfurt II (draw refunded)
60%
St. Jakob Rosental (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Klagenfurt II at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

St. Jakob Rosental away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.55 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Klagenfurt II attack 1.95 + St. Jakob Rosental defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.75

St. Jakob Rosental attack 1.51 + Austria Klagenfurt II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Austria Klagenfurt II scores more
46%
level
23%
St. Jakob Rosental scores more
31%

Austria Klagenfurt II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Austria Klagenfurt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Austria Klagenfurt II 1 – 1 St. Jakob Rosental

Austria Klagenfurt II and St. Jakob Rosental drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on May 16, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Klagenfurt Kunstrasen in Klagenfurt am Wörthersee.