Austria Klagenfurt II 2–1 SC Landskron

Austria Klagenfurt II

FT

2 – 1

SC Landskron

5/26/2024

Landesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 27Sportanlage Brückl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Austria Klagenfurt II56%

×Draw21%

SC Landskron23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria Klagenfurt IIExpected goals in this matchSC Landskron

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.33

Austria Klagenfurt II

2.15

SC Landskron

1.33

Austria Klagenfurt II creates 62% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 31 away

1.95

creates per match

1.39

1.27

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Austria Klagenfurt II

1.95

SC Landskron

1.39

allows per match

Austria Klagenfurt II

1.27

SC Landskron

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria Klagenfurt II+0.00on par

SC Landskron+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Klagenfurt II ↓

SC Landskron →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Austria Klagenfurt II or draw

77%

Austria Klagenfurt II or SC Landskron

79%

Draw or SC Landskron

44%

Winning margin

Austria Klagenfurt II wins by 2+

34%

SC Landskron wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Austria Klagenfurt II 1+ goals

88%

Austria Klagenfurt II 2+ goals

63%

Austria Klagenfurt II 3+ goals

36%

SC Landskron 1+ goals

74%

SC Landskron 2+ goals

38%

SC Landskron 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Austria Klagenfurt II (draw refunded)

71%

SC Landskron (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Klagenfurt II at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

SC Landskron away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Klagenfurt II attack 1.95 + SC Landskron defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.15

SC Landskron attack 1.39 + Austria Klagenfurt II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Austria Klagenfurt II scores more

56%

level

21%

SC Landskron scores more

23%

Austria Klagenfurt II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Austria Klagenfurt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff