Austria Klagenfurt II 1–1 Maria Saal

Austria Klagenfurt II

FT

1 – 1

Maria Saal

11/19/2022

Landesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 19Sportanlage Brückl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Austria Klagenfurt II57%

×Draw20%

Maria Saal23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria Klagenfurt IIExpected goals in this matchMaria Saal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.35

Austria Klagenfurt II

2.24

Maria Saal

1.35

Austria Klagenfurt II creates 66% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 49 away

1.95

creates per match

1.43

1.27

allows per match

2.53

creates per match

Austria Klagenfurt II

1.95

Maria Saal

1.43

allows per match

Austria Klagenfurt II

1.27

Maria Saal

2.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria Klagenfurt II+0.00on par

Maria Saal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Klagenfurt II ↓

Maria Saal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Austria Klagenfurt II or draw

77%

Austria Klagenfurt II or Maria Saal

80%

Draw or Maria Saal

43%

Winning margin

Austria Klagenfurt II wins by 2+

35%

Maria Saal wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Austria Klagenfurt II 1+ goals

89%

Austria Klagenfurt II 2+ goals

65%

Austria Klagenfurt II 3+ goals

38%

Maria Saal 1+ goals

74%

Maria Saal 2+ goals

39%

Maria Saal 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Austria Klagenfurt II (draw refunded)

72%

Maria Saal (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Klagenfurt II at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

Maria Saal away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.53 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Klagenfurt II attack 1.95 + Maria Saal defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.24

Maria Saal attack 1.43 + Austria Klagenfurt II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Austria Klagenfurt II scores more

57%

level

20%

Maria Saal scores more

23%

Austria Klagenfurt II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Austria Klagenfurt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Austria Klagenfurt II vs Maria Saal

Austria Klagenfurt II and Maria Saal drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Sportanlage Brückl in Brückl.

Austria Klagenfurt II vs Maria Saal — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Austria Klagenfurt II vs Maria Saal