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Austria Klagenfurt II vs Gmünd — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Austria Klagenfurt II
Austria Klagenfurt II
FT
2 – 0
Gmünd
Gmünd
4/16/2023Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 25Sportanlage Brückl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Austria Klagenfurt II53%
×Draw23%
Gmünd24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Klagenfurt II
1.87
Gmünd
1.20

Austria Klagenfurt II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 48 away

creates per match

Austria Klagenfurt II
1.95
Gmünd
1.13

allows per match

Austria Klagenfurt II
1.27
Gmünd
1.79

finishing

Austria Klagenfurt II+0.00on par
Gmünd+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Klagenfurt II ↓

Gmünd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Austria Klagenfurt II or draw
76%
Austria Klagenfurt II or Gmünd
77%
Draw or Gmünd
47%

Winning margin

Austria Klagenfurt II wins by 2+
30%
Gmünd wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Austria Klagenfurt II 1+ goals
85%
Austria Klagenfurt II 2+ goals
56%
Austria Klagenfurt II 3+ goals
29%
Gmünd 1+ goals
70%
Gmünd 2+ goals
34%
Gmünd 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Austria Klagenfurt II (draw refunded)
68%
Gmünd (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Klagenfurt II at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

Gmünd away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.79 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Klagenfurt II attack 1.95 + Gmünd defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.87

Gmünd attack 1.13 + Austria Klagenfurt II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Austria Klagenfurt II scores more
53%
level
23%
Gmünd scores more
24%

Austria Klagenfurt II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Austria Klagenfurt II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Austria Klagenfurt II 2 – 0 Gmünd

Austria Klagenfurt II beat Gmünd 2-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Brückl in Brückl.