Australia W 2–0 Denmark W: Result & Stats

Australia W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Denmark W

H. Raso 70'

C. Foord 29'

8/7/2023

World Cup - Women · Round of 16Stadium Australia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Australia W40%

×Draw27%

Denmark W33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Australia WExpected goals in this matchDenmark W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.17

Australia W

1.33

Denmark W

1.17

Australia W creates 14% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.67

creates per match

0.67

1.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Australia W

1.67

Denmark W

0.67

allows per match

Australia W

1.67

Denmark W

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Australia W+0.00on par

Denmark W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Australia W ↓

Denmark W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Australia W or draw

67%

Australia W or Denmark W

73%

Draw or Denmark W

60%

Winning margin

Australia W wins by 2+

18%

Denmark W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Australia W 1+ goals

74%

Australia W 2+ goals

38%

Australia W 3+ goals

15%

Denmark W 1+ goals

69%

Denmark W 2+ goals

33%

Denmark W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Australia W (draw refunded)

55%

Denmark W (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Australia W at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Denmark W away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Australia W attack 1.67 + Denmark W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Denmark W attack 0.67 + Australia W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Australia W scores more

40%

level

27%

Denmark W scores more

33%

Australia W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Australia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Foord

Australia W · M

7.9

Match Events

29'

63'

63'

66'

70'

H. Raso↳ E. van Egmond

73'

J. Hasbo← K. Kühl

80'

C. Vine← E. van Egmond

80'

S. Kerr← H. Raso

82'

S. Troelsgaard← K. Holmgaard

82'

E. Snerle← A. Vangsgaard

90+1'

C. Polkinghorne← M. Fowler

90+5'

T. Yallop← C. Foord

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AustraliaDenmark

Overview

44%Possession56%

10Total Shots13

4Corners2

7Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots13

3On Target3

4Off Target8

3Blocked2

7Inside Box6

3Outside Box7

Passing

44%Possession56%

393Total Passes493

273Accurate Passes371

69%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1