Australia 5–1 Jordan: Result & Stats | League #30

Australia

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Jordan

M. Luongo 69'

T. Rogić 53'

T. Cahill 44', 24'

A. Mooy 39'

Abdallah Deeb Salim 90'

3/29/2016

League #30 · 2nd Round - 10Allianz Stadium (Sydney)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Australia77%

×Draw15%

Jordan8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AustraliaExpected goals in this matchJordan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

0.63

Australia

2.42

Jordan

0.63

Australia creates 284% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

2.50

creates per match

1.00

0.25

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Australia

2.50

Jordan

1.00

allows per match

Australia

0.25

Jordan

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Australia+0.00on par

Jordan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Australia ↓

Jordan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Australia or draw

92%

Australia or Jordan

85%

Draw or Jordan

23%

Winning margin

Australia wins by 2+

54%

Jordan wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Australia 1+ goals

91%

Australia 2+ goals

69%

Australia 3+ goals

43%

Jordan 1+ goals

47%

Jordan 2+ goals

13%

Jordan 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Australia (draw refunded)

91%

Jordan (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Australia at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Jordan away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Australia attack 2.50 + Jordan defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.42

Jordan attack 1.00 + Australia defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Australia scores more

77%

level

15%

Jordan scores more

8%

Australia at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Australia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

T. Cahill

39'

A. Mooy

44'

T. Cahill

46'

Abdallah Deeb Salim← Ahmed Samir

46'

Yousef Al Rawashdeh← Monther Abu Amara

53'

T. Rogić

64'

C. Ikonomidis← M. Leckie

64'

M. Luongo← A. Mooy

69'

M. Luongo

71'

N. Burns← R. Kruse

75'

Baha' Faisal← Hamza Al Dardoor

90'

Abdallah Deeb Salim

Australia

Jordan

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

64'▲C. Ikonomidis←▼M. Leckie

64'▲M. Luongo←▼A. Mooy

71'▲N. Burns←▼R. Kruse

Australia substitutes

IkonomidisLuongoBurnsFedericiGersbachGiannouWilkinsonGeriaJedinakLangerakMcKayMcGowan

46'▲Abdallah Deeb Salim←▼Ahmed Samir

46'▲Yousef Al Rawashdeh←▼Monther Abu Amara

75'▲Baha' Faisal←▼Hamza Al Dardoor

Jordan substitutes

SalimRawashdehFaisalEliasYassenAwadShatnawiAwanehNaberAllaYaseenRiyahi