Australia 4–0 Indonesia: Result & Stats | Asian Cup

Australia

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Indonesia

1/28/2024

Asian Cup · Round of 16Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Australia70%

×Draw19%

Indonesia11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AustraliaExpected goals in this matchIndonesia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.74

Australia

2.17

Indonesia

0.74

Australia creates 193% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

0.67

0.80

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Australia

2.00

Indonesia

0.67

allows per match

Australia

0.80

Indonesia

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Australia+0.00on par

Indonesia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Australia ↓

Indonesia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Australia or draw

89%

Australia or Indonesia

81%

Draw or Indonesia

30%

Winning margin

Australia wins by 2+

46%

Indonesia wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Australia 1+ goals

89%

Australia 2+ goals

64%

Australia 3+ goals

36%

Indonesia 1+ goals

52%

Indonesia 2+ goals

17%

Indonesia 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Australia (draw refunded)

86%

Indonesia (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Australia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Indonesia away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Australia attack 2.00 + Indonesia defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Indonesia attack 0.67 + Australia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Australia scores more

70%

level

19%

Indonesia scores more

11%

Australia at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Australia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff