Australia U23 vs Thailand U23 — League #532 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Australia U2329%
Thailand U2344%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Thailand U23 creates 28% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Australia U23 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Australia U23 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches
Thailand U23 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Australia U23 attack 1.25 + Thailand U23 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13
Thailand U23 attack 1.40 + Australia U23 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Thailand U23 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Thailand U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Australia U23 host Thailand U23 on Saturday, 11 January 2020 at 13:15. The match is part of the League #532 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Australia U23 vs Thailand U23
Australia U23 beat Thailand U23 2-1 in League #532 on January 11, 2020.
Goals: A. Amornlertsak (24'), N. D'Agostino (43', 76').
The match was played at Rajamangala National Stadium in Bangkok.