Australia U20 W 9–0 Vanuatu W: Result & Stats

Australia U20 W

9 – 0

HT: 5 – 0

Vanuatu W

M. Stanic-Floody 90', 73'

M. Lobo 63'

I. Breier 50'

M. Caspers 44'

J. Allan 34'

G. Kuilamu 30'

S. Saveska 17', 12'

2/19/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Australia U20 W92%

×Draw5%

Vanuatu W3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Australia U20 WExpected goals in this matchVanuatu W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.60

0.80

Australia U20 W

4.60

Vanuatu W

0.80

Australia U20 W creates 475% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

6.20

creates per match

1.00

0.60

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Australia U20 W

6.20

Vanuatu W

1.00

allows per match

Australia U20 W

0.60

Vanuatu W

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Australia U20 W+0.00on par

Vanuatu W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Australia U20 W ↓

Vanuatu W →

0–01%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–03%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2–06%

2–15%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–010%

4–18%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (10%) · grid covers 63% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

Australia U20 W or draw

97%

Australia U20 W or Vanuatu W

95%

Draw or Vanuatu W

Winning margin

Australia U20 W wins by 2+

81%

Vanuatu W wins by 2+

Team goals

Australia U20 W 1+ goals

99%

Australia U20 W 2+ goals

93%

Australia U20 W 3+ goals

80%

Vanuatu W 1+ goals

55%

Vanuatu W 2+ goals

19%

Vanuatu W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Australia U20 W (draw refunded)

97%

Vanuatu W (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Australia U20 W at home — creates 6.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Vanuatu W away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Australia U20 W attack 6.20 + Vanuatu W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 4.60

Vanuatu W attack 1.00 + Australia U20 W defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 92%?"

Australia U20 W scores more

92%

level

Vanuatu W scores more

Australia U20 W at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Australia U20 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

17'

30'

34'

44'

50'

63'

73'

90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff