Australia U20 W 12–0 Solomon Islands W

Australia U20 W

12 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Solomon Islands W

C. Tallon-Henniker 90', 55'

S. Saveska 90'

M. Lobo 71'

A. Collins 68', 50', 38'

P. Trimis 64', 47', 27'

S. McMahon 23', 9'

2/22/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Australia U20 W98%

×Draw2%

Solomon Islands W1%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Australia U20 WExpected goals in this matchSolomon Islands W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

6.22

0.55

Australia U20 W

6.22

Solomon Islands W

0.55

Australia U20 W creates 1031% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

6.20

creates per match

0.50

0.60

allows per match

6.25

creates per match

Australia U20 W

6.20

Solomon Islands W

0.50

allows per match

Australia U20 W

0.60

Solomon Islands W

6.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Australia U20 W+0.00on par

Solomon Islands W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over94
Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Australia U20 W ↓

Solomon Islands W →

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–01%

1–11%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2–04%

2–12%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–013%

4–17%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (13%) · grid covers 45% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

94%6%3.5

83%17%4.5

66%34%

Double chance

Australia U20 W or draw

99%

Australia U20 W or Solomon Islands W

98%

Draw or Solomon Islands W

Winning margin

Australia U20 W wins by 2+

93%

Solomon Islands W wins by 2+

Team goals

Australia U20 W 1+ goals

100%

Australia U20 W 2+ goals

97%

Australia U20 W 3+ goals

91%

Solomon Islands W 1+ goals

42%

Solomon Islands W 2+ goals

11%

Solomon Islands W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Australia U20 W (draw refunded)

99%

Solomon Islands W (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Australia U20 W at home — creates 6.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Solomon Islands W away — creates 0.50, concedes 6.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Australia U20 W attack 6.20 + Solomon Islands W defence 6.25 → ÷2 → 6.22

Solomon Islands W attack 0.50 + Australia U20 W defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 98%?"

Australia U20 W scores more

98%

level

Solomon Islands W scores more

Australia U20 W at 98% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 98% does not mean "Australia U20 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

27'

38'

47'

50'

55'

64'

68'

71'

90'

90'

Australia

Solomon

⚽

⚽2

⚽3

⚽3

Manager: L. Blayney

Australia U20 W substitutes

1Black4Stanic-Floody6Caspers7Allan14Dewey16Saveska21Tallon-Henniker24Santos25Kiceec26Fazzari

Solomon Islands W substitutes

1Kofela8Donga13Sade14Fiua15Rotoava16Tolivaka17Tahiri18Lalawa19Masi20Rotoava