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Yanbian Tigers FC vs Nei Mongol Zhongyou — League One 2018

Yanbian Tigers FC
Yanbian Tigers FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
4/1/2018League OneLeague One · Round 3Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium (Yanji)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Yanbian Tigers FC45%
×Draw26%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yanbian Tigers FC
1.51
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.17

Yanbian Tigers FC creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 40 away

creates per match

Yanbian Tigers FC
1.40
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.15

allows per match

Yanbian Tigers FC
1.20
Nei Mongol Zhongyou
1.63

finishing

Yanbian Tigers FC+0.00on par
Nei Mongol Zhongyou+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yanbian Tigers FC ↓

Nei Mongol Zhongyou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Yanbian Tigers FC or draw
71%
Yanbian Tigers FC or Nei Mongol Zhongyou
74%
Draw or Nei Mongol Zhongyou
55%

Winning margin

Yanbian Tigers FC wins by 2+
22%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Yanbian Tigers FC 1+ goals
78%
Yanbian Tigers FC 2+ goals
44%
Yanbian Tigers FC 3+ goals
19%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1+ goals
69%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 2+ goals
33%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Yanbian Tigers FC (draw refunded)
60%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yanbian Tigers FC at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Nei Mongol Zhongyou away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.63 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yanbian Tigers FC attack 1.40 + Nei Mongol Zhongyou defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.51

Nei Mongol Zhongyou attack 1.15 + Yanbian Tigers FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Yanbian Tigers FC scores more
45%
level
26%
Nei Mongol Zhongyou scores more
29%

Yanbian Tigers FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Yanbian Tigers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yanbian Tigers FC 1 – 0 Nei Mongol Zhongyou

Yanbian Tigers FC beat Nei Mongol Zhongyou 1-0 in League One on April 1, 2018.

The match was played at Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium (Yanji).