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Australia U19 vs Vietnam U19 — AFF U19 Championship 2022

Australia U19
Australia U19
FT
6 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Vietnam U19
Vietnam U19
L. Vickery 90+7'
Z. Schreiber 74'
J. Najdovski 66', 40', 20'
A. Sulemani 49'
Nguyen Bao Long 86' (pen)
Q. D. Hoang 57'
7/21/2024AFF U19 ChampionshipAFF U19 Championship · Group Stage - 2Stadion Gelora 10 November

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Australia U1936%
×Draw19%
Vietnam U1945%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Australia U19
2.17
Vietnam U19
2.42

Vietnam U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Australia U19
2.67
Vietnam U19
3.17

allows per match

Australia U19
1.67
Vietnam U19
1.67

finishing

Australia U19+0.00on par
Vietnam U19+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Australia U19 ↓

Vietnam U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Australia U19 or draw
55%
Australia U19 or Vietnam U19
81%
Draw or Vietnam U19
64%

Winning margin

Australia U19 wins by 2+
20%
Vietnam U19 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Australia U19 1+ goals
89%
Australia U19 2+ goals
64%
Australia U19 3+ goals
36%
Vietnam U19 1+ goals
91%
Vietnam U19 2+ goals
69%
Vietnam U19 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Australia U19 (draw refunded)
45%
Vietnam U19 (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Australia U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Vietnam U19 away — creates 3.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Australia U19 attack 2.67 + Vietnam U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Vietnam U19 attack 3.17 + Australia U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Australia U19 scores more
36%
level
19%
Vietnam U19 scores more
45%

Vietnam U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vietnam U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
J. Najdovski
40'
J. Najdovski
49'
A. Sulemani
57'
Q. D. Hoang
66'
J. Najdovski
74'
Z. Schreiber
86'
Nguyen Bao LongPenalty
90+7'
L. Vickery

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Australia U19 vs Vietnam U19

Australia U19 beat Vietnam U19 6-2 in AFF U19 Championship on July 21, 2024.

Goals: J. Najdovski (20', 40', 66'), A. Sulemani (49'), Q. D. Hoang (57'), Z. Schreiber (74'), Nguyen Bao Long (86' pen), L. Vickery (90+7').

The match was played at Stadion Gelora 10 November in Surabaya.