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Australia U19 vs Malaysia U19 — AFF U19 Championship 2022

Australia U19
Australia U19
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Malaysia U19
Malaysia U19
Unknown 120+5' (pen), 120+4' (pen), 120+3' (pen), 120+2' (pen), 120+1' (pen)
M. Younis 29'
Unknown 120+4' (pen), 120+2' (pen), 120+1' (pen)
J. Najdovski 73' (OG)
7/29/2024AFF U19 ChampionshipAFF U19 Championship · 3rd Place FinalStadion Gelora Bung Tomo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Australia U1933%
×Draw20%
Malaysia U1946%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Australia U19
1.90
Malaysia U19
2.26

Malaysia U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Australia U19
2.67
Malaysia U19
2.86

allows per match

Australia U19
1.67
Malaysia U19
1.14

finishing

Australia U19+0.00on par
Malaysia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Australia U19 ↓

Malaysia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Australia U19 or draw
54%
Australia U19 or Malaysia U19
80%
Draw or Malaysia U19
67%

Winning margin

Australia U19 wins by 2+
17%
Malaysia U19 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Australia U19 1+ goals
85%
Australia U19 2+ goals
56%
Australia U19 3+ goals
29%
Malaysia U19 1+ goals
89%
Malaysia U19 2+ goals
66%
Malaysia U19 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Australia U19 (draw refunded)
42%
Malaysia U19 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Australia U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Malaysia U19 away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Australia U19 attack 2.67 + Malaysia U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.90

Malaysia U19 attack 2.86 + Australia U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Australia U19 scores more
33%
level
20%
Malaysia U19 scores more
46%

Malaysia U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Malaysia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
M. Younis
73'
J. NajdovskiOwn goal
120+1'
Penalty
120+1'
Penalty
120+2'
Penalty
120+2'
Penalty
120+3'
Penalty
120+3'
Missed penalty
120+4'
Penalty
120+4'
Penalty
120+5'
Penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFF U19 Championship: Australia U19 1–1 Malaysia U19

Australia U19 and Malaysia U19 drew 1-1 in AFF U19 Championship on July 29, 2024.

Goals: M. Younis (29'), J. Najdovski (73' o.g.), ? (120+1' pen, 120+1' pen, 120+2' pen, 120+2' pen, 120+3' pen, 120+4' pen, 120+4' pen, 120+5' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Gelora Bung Tomo in Surabaya.