Australia U19 2–2 Cambodia U19: Result & Stats

Australia U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Cambodia U19

D. Nunes 17'

E. Neil 2'

L. Marinucci 81' (OG)

S. Sreng 59'

6/9/2026

AFF U19 Championship · Group Stage - 3Stadion Madya Atletik Sumatera Utara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Australia U1959%

×Draw19%

Cambodia U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Australia U19Expected goals in this matchCambodia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

1.44

Australia U19

2.44

Cambodia U19

1.44

Australia U19 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

2.67

creates per match

1.20

1.67

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Australia U19

2.67

Cambodia U19

1.20

allows per match

Australia U19

1.67

Cambodia U19

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Australia U19+0.00on par

Cambodia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Australia U19 ↓

Cambodia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Australia U19 or draw

78%

Australia U19 or Cambodia U19

81%

Draw or Cambodia U19

41%

Winning margin

Australia U19 wins by 2+

38%

Cambodia U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Australia U19 1+ goals

91%

Australia U19 2+ goals

70%

Australia U19 3+ goals

43%

Cambodia U19 1+ goals

76%

Cambodia U19 2+ goals

42%

Cambodia U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Australia U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Cambodia U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Australia U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Cambodia U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Australia U19 attack 2.67 + Cambodia U19 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.44

Cambodia U19 attack 1.20 + Australia U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Australia U19 scores more

59%

level

19%

Cambodia U19 scores more

22%

Australia U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Australia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

E. Neil

17'

D. Nunes

59'

S. Sreng

81'

L. MarinucciOwn goal

90+3'

M. Macallister

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff