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Austin vs Rio Grande Valley — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Austin
Austin
FT
3 – 2
Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
4/11/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3St. David’s Performance Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Austin49%
×Draw22%
Rio Grande Valley29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austin
1.94
Rio Grande Valley
1.44

Austin creates 35% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Austin
2.13
Rio Grande Valley
2.00

allows per match

Austin
0.88
Rio Grande Valley
1.75

finishing

Austin+0.00on par
Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austin ↓

Rio Grande Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Austin or draw
71%
Austin or Rio Grande Valley
78%
Draw or Rio Grande Valley
51%

Winning margin

Austin wins by 2+
28%
Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Austin 1+ goals
86%
Austin 2+ goals
58%
Austin 3+ goals
30%
Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
76%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
42%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Austin (draw refunded)
63%
Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austin at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Rio Grande Valley away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austin attack 2.13 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.94

Rio Grande Valley attack 2.00 + Austin defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Austin scores more
49%
level
22%
Rio Grande Valley scores more
29%

Austin at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Austin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Austin 3–2 Rio Grande Valley

Austin beat Rio Grande Valley 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at St. David’s Performance Center in Austin, Texas.