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Austin vs Philadelphia Union — Major League Soccer 2026

Austin
Austin
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union
3/17/2024Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 6Q2 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Austin36%
×Draw26%
Philadelphia Union38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austin
1.32
Philadelphia Union
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 19 away

creates per match

Austin
1.16
Philadelphia Union
1.46

allows per match

Austin
1.29
Philadelphia Union
1.49

finishing

Austin+0.02on par
Philadelphia Union+0.01on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austin ↓

Philadelphia Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Austin or draw
62%
Austin or Philadelphia Union
74%
Draw or Philadelphia Union
64%

Winning margin

Austin wins by 2+
16%
Philadelphia Union wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Austin 1+ goals
73%
Austin 2+ goals
38%
Austin 3+ goals
15%
Philadelphia Union 1+ goals
75%
Philadelphia Union 2+ goals
40%
Philadelphia Union 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Austin (draw refunded)
48%
Philadelphia Union (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austin at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Philadelphia Union away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.49 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austin attack 1.16 + Philadelphia Union defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.32

Philadelphia Union attack 1.46 + Austin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Austin scores more
36%
level
26%
Philadelphia Union scores more
38%

Philadelphia Union at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Philadelphia Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: Austin 2–2 Philadelphia Union

Austin and Philadelphia Union drew 2-2 in Major League Soccer on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Q2 Stadium in Austin, Texas.