Austin 1–2 Minnesota United FC: Result & Stats

Austin

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Minnesota United FC

2/25/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 2Q2 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Austin42%

×Draw26%

Minnesota United FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AustinExpected goals in this matchMinnesota United FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.26

Austin

1.45

Minnesota United FC

1.26

Austin creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 26 away

1.16

creates per match

1.23

1.29

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Austin

1.16

Minnesota United FC

1.23

allows per match

Austin

1.29

Minnesota United FC

1.74

+0.02on par

finishing

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

Austin+0.02on par

Minnesota United FC+0.27scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austin ↓

Minnesota United FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Austin or draw

67%

Austin or Minnesota United FC

74%

Draw or Minnesota United FC

58%

Winning margin

Austin wins by 2+

20%

Minnesota United FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Austin 1+ goals

77%

Austin 2+ goals

42%

Austin 3+ goals

18%

Minnesota United FC 1+ goals

72%

Minnesota United FC 2+ goals

36%

Minnesota United FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Austin (draw refunded)

56%

Minnesota United FC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austin at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Minnesota United FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.74 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austin attack 1.16 + Minnesota United FC defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.45

Minnesota United FC attack 1.23 + Austin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Austin scores more

42%

level

26%

Minnesota United FC scores more

33%

Austin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Austin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff