Austin 2–2 Charlotte: Result & Stats

Austin

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Charlotte

J. Gallagher 80'

A. Ring 11'

Iuri Tavares 56'

K. Świderski 33' (pen)

7/21/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 37Q2 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Austin39%

×Draw25%

Charlotte35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AustinExpected goals in this matchCharlotte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.35

Austin

1.43

Charlotte

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 19 away

1.28

creates per match

1.27

1.44

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Austin

1.28

Charlotte

1.27

allows per match

Austin

1.44

Charlotte

1.57

+0.01on par

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Austin+0.01on par

Charlotte+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austin ↓

Charlotte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Austin or draw

65%

Austin or Charlotte

75%

Draw or Charlotte

61%

Winning margin

Austin wins by 2+

18%

Charlotte wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Austin 1+ goals

76%

Austin 2+ goals

42%

Austin 3+ goals

17%

Charlotte 1+ goals

74%

Charlotte 2+ goals

39%

Charlotte 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Austin (draw refunded)

52%

Charlotte (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austin at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 24 matches

Charlotte away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.57 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austin attack 1.28 + Charlotte defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.43

Charlotte attack 1.27 + Austin defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Austin scores more

39%

level

25%

Charlotte scores more

35%

Austin at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Austin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Ring

Austin · M

7.3

Match Events

11'

A. Ring↳ D. Pereira

33'

K. ŚwiderskiPenalty

56'

Iuri Tavares↳ A. Westwood

57'

O. Wolff← O. Bukari

57'

M. Desler← H. Jimenez

57'

J. Gallagher← Guilherme Biro

59'

Andrew Privett

64'

P. Agyemang← K. Świderski

65'

D. Rubio← G. Zardes

70'

B. Dejaegere← Iuri Tavares

70'

T. Smalls← K. Vargas

74'

Ž. Kolmanič← J. Valencia

75'

Diego Rubio

80'

J. Gallagher↳ D. Rubio

81'

B. Bender← B. Bronico

86'

Daniel Pereira

87'

Mikkel Desler

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AustinCharlotte

Overview

56%Possession44%

11Total Shots12

1.82Expected Goals (xG)2.34

3Corners3

11Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots12

4On Target5

4Off Target5

3Blocked2

10Inside Box9

1Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

489Total Passes380

433Accurate Passes325

89%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-0.01Goals Prevented-0.01

Discipline

11Fouls10

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2