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Austin vs CF Montreal — Major League Soccer 2018

Austin
Austin
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
CF Montreal
CF Montreal
3/5/2023Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 4Q2 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Austin40%
×Draw25%
CF Montreal35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austin
1.46
CF Montreal
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

creates per match

Austin
1.16
CF Montreal
1.39

allows per match

Austin
1.29
CF Montreal
1.76

finishing

Austin+0.02on par
CF Montreal+0.18scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austin ↓

CF Montreal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Austin or draw
65%
Austin or CF Montreal
75%
Draw or CF Montreal
60%

Winning margin

Austin wins by 2+
19%
CF Montreal wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Austin 1+ goals
77%
Austin 2+ goals
43%
Austin 3+ goals
18%
CF Montreal 1+ goals
74%
CF Montreal 2+ goals
39%
CF Montreal 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Austin (draw refunded)
54%
CF Montreal (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austin at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.76 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austin attack 1.16 + CF Montreal defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.46

CF Montreal attack 1.39 + Austin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Austin scores more
40%
level
25%
CF Montreal scores more
35%

Austin at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Austin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Austin vs CF Montreal

Austin beat CF Montreal 1-0 in Major League Soccer on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Q2 Stadium in Austin, Texas.