Dergview 0–2 Carrick Rangers: Result & Stats

Dergview

FT

0 – 2

Carrick Rangers

11/17/2018

Championship · Round 15Darragh Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dergview23%

×Draw28%

Carrick Rangers48%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DergviewExpected goals in this matchCarrick Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

1.33

Dergview

0.83

Carrick Rangers

1.33

Carrick Rangers creates 60% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

0.67

creates per match

1.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Dergview

0.67

Carrick Rangers

1.33

allows per match

Dergview

1.33

Carrick Rangers

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dergview+0.00on par

Carrick Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dergview ↓

Carrick Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–115%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dergview or draw

52%

Dergview or Carrick Rangers

72%

Draw or Carrick Rangers

77%

Winning margin

Dergview wins by 2+

7%

Carrick Rangers wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Dergview 1+ goals

56%

Dergview 2+ goals

20%

Dergview 3+ goals

5%

Carrick Rangers 1+ goals

74%

Carrick Rangers 2+ goals

38%

Carrick Rangers 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Dergview (draw refunded)

33%

Carrick Rangers (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dergview at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Carrick Rangers away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dergview attack 0.67 + Carrick Rangers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Carrick Rangers attack 1.33 + Dergview defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dergview scores more

23%

level

28%

Carrick Rangers scores more

48%

Carrick Rangers at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Carrick Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff