Žalgiris II 4–5 Nevėžis: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Žalgiris II

FT

4 – 5

Nevėžis

5/7/2016

1 Lyga · Round 7Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Žalgiris II35%

×Draw23%

Nevėžis42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Žalgiris IIExpected goals in this matchNevėžis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.76

Žalgiris II

1.59

Nevėžis

1.76

Nevėžis creates 11% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 84 away

1.88

creates per match

1.61

1.91

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Žalgiris II

1.88

Nevėžis

1.61

allows per match

Žalgiris II

1.91

Nevėžis

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Žalgiris II+0.00on par

Nevėžis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žalgiris II ↓

Nevėžis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Žalgiris II or draw

58%

Žalgiris II or Nevėžis

77%

Draw or Nevėžis

65%

Winning margin

Žalgiris II wins by 2+

17%

Nevėžis wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Žalgiris II 1+ goals

80%

Žalgiris II 2+ goals

47%

Žalgiris II 3+ goals

21%

Nevėžis 1+ goals

83%

Nevėžis 2+ goals

52%

Nevėžis 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Žalgiris II (draw refunded)

45%

Nevėžis (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žalgiris II at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.91 · 89 matches

Nevėžis away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žalgiris II attack 1.88 + Nevėžis defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.59

Nevėžis attack 1.61 + Žalgiris II defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Žalgiris II scores more

35%

level

23%

Nevėžis scores more

42%

Nevėžis at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff