Austin Bold 1–1 Tulsa Roughnecks: Result & Stats

Austin Bold

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tulsa Roughnecks

9/6/2020

USL Championship · Round 19Bold Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Austin Bold51%

×Draw24%

Tulsa Roughnecks25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austin BoldExpected goals in this matchTulsa Roughnecks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.17

Austin Bold

1.76

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.17

Austin Bold creates 50% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 130 away

1.71

creates per match

1.19

1.14

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Austin Bold

1.71

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.19

allows per match

Austin Bold

1.14

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austin Bold+0.00on par

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austin Bold ↓

Tulsa Roughnecks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Austin Bold or draw

75%

Austin Bold or Tulsa Roughnecks

76%

Draw or Tulsa Roughnecks

49%

Winning margin

Austin Bold wins by 2+

28%

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Austin Bold 1+ goals

83%

Austin Bold 2+ goals

52%

Austin Bold 3+ goals

26%

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals

69%

Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals

33%

Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Austin Bold (draw refunded)

67%

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austin Bold at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.14 · 42 matches

Tulsa Roughnecks away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austin Bold attack 1.71 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.76

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.19 + Austin Bold defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Austin Bold scores more

51%

level

24%

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more

25%

Austin Bold at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Austin Bold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff