Austin Bold 2–0 Real Monarchs: Result & Stats

Austin Bold

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Monarchs

5/27/2021

USL Championship · Round 6Bold Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Austin Bold52%

×Draw24%

Real Monarchs24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austin BoldExpected goals in this matchReal Monarchs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.13

Austin Bold

1.76

Real Monarchs

1.13

Austin Bold creates 56% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 57 away

1.71

creates per match

1.12

1.14

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Austin Bold

1.71

Real Monarchs

1.12

allows per match

Austin Bold

1.14

Real Monarchs

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austin Bold+0.00on par

Real Monarchs+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austin Bold ↓

Real Monarchs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Austin Bold or draw

76%

Austin Bold or Real Monarchs

76%

Draw or Real Monarchs

48%

Winning margin

Austin Bold wins by 2+

29%

Real Monarchs wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Austin Bold 1+ goals

83%

Austin Bold 2+ goals

52%

Austin Bold 3+ goals

26%

Real Monarchs 1+ goals

68%

Real Monarchs 2+ goals

31%

Real Monarchs 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Austin Bold (draw refunded)

68%

Real Monarchs (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austin Bold at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.14 · 42 matches

Real Monarchs away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.81 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austin Bold attack 1.71 + Real Monarchs defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.76

Real Monarchs attack 1.12 + Austin Bold defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Austin Bold scores more

52%

level

24%

Real Monarchs scores more

24%

Austin Bold at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Austin Bold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff