Austin Bold 1–3 OKC Energy: Result & Stats

Austin Bold

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

OKC Energy

7/18/2020

USL Championship · Round 5Bold Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Austin Bold50%

×Draw24%

OKC Energy26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austin BoldExpected goals in this matchOKC Energy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.19

Austin Bold

1.73

OKC Energy

1.19

Austin Bold creates 45% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 62 away

1.71

creates per match

1.24

1.14

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Austin Bold

1.71

OKC Energy

1.24

allows per match

Austin Bold

1.14

OKC Energy

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austin Bold+0.00on par

OKC Energy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austin Bold ↓

OKC Energy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Austin Bold or draw

74%

Austin Bold or OKC Energy

76%

Draw or OKC Energy

50%

Winning margin

Austin Bold wins by 2+

27%

OKC Energy wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Austin Bold 1+ goals

82%

Austin Bold 2+ goals

52%

Austin Bold 3+ goals

25%

OKC Energy 1+ goals

70%

OKC Energy 2+ goals

33%

OKC Energy 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Austin Bold (draw refunded)

65%

OKC Energy (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austin Bold at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.14 · 42 matches

OKC Energy away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austin Bold attack 1.71 + OKC Energy defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.73

OKC Energy attack 1.24 + Austin Bold defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Austin Bold scores more

50%

level

24%

OKC Energy scores more

26%

Austin Bold at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Austin Bold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff