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Austin Bold vs Miami FC — USL Championship 2018

Austin Bold
Austin Bold
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Miami FC
Miami FC
8/15/2021USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 27Bold Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Austin Bold50%
×Draw24%
Miami FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austin Bold
1.66
Miami FC
1.10

Austin Bold creates 51% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 100 away

creates per match

Austin Bold
1.71
Miami FC
1.07

allows per match

Austin Bold
1.14
Miami FC
1.61

finishing

Austin Bold+0.00on par
Miami FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austin Bold ↓

Miami FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Austin Bold or draw
75%
Austin Bold or Miami FC
76%
Draw or Miami FC
50%

Winning margin

Austin Bold wins by 2+
27%
Miami FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Austin Bold 1+ goals
81%
Austin Bold 2+ goals
49%
Austin Bold 3+ goals
23%
Miami FC 1+ goals
67%
Miami FC 2+ goals
30%
Miami FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Austin Bold (draw refunded)
67%
Miami FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austin Bold at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.14 · 42 matches

Miami FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.61 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austin Bold attack 1.71 + Miami FC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.66

Miami FC attack 1.07 + Austin Bold defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Austin Bold scores more
50%
level
24%
Miami FC scores more
25%

Austin Bold at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Austin Bold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Austin Bold vs Miami FC

Austin Bold and Miami FC drew 0-0 in USL Championship on August 15, 2021.

The match was played at Bold Stadium in Austin.