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Austin Bold vs El Paso Locomotive — USL Championship 2018

Austin Bold
Austin Bold
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
El Paso Locomotive
El Paso Locomotive
6/4/2021USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 8Bold Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Austin Bold46%
×Draw25%
El Paso Locomotive28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austin Bold
1.54
El Paso Locomotive
1.14

Austin Bold creates 35% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 115 away

creates per match

Austin Bold
1.71
El Paso Locomotive
1.14

allows per match

Austin Bold
1.14
El Paso Locomotive
1.36

finishing

Austin Bold+0.00on par
El Paso Locomotive+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austin Bold ↓

El Paso Locomotive →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Austin Bold or draw
72%
Austin Bold or El Paso Locomotive
75%
Draw or El Paso Locomotive
54%

Winning margin

Austin Bold wins by 2+
23%
El Paso Locomotive wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Austin Bold 1+ goals
79%
Austin Bold 2+ goals
45%
Austin Bold 3+ goals
20%
El Paso Locomotive 1+ goals
68%
El Paso Locomotive 2+ goals
32%
El Paso Locomotive 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Austin Bold (draw refunded)
62%
El Paso Locomotive (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austin Bold at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.14 · 42 matches

El Paso Locomotive away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.36 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austin Bold attack 1.71 + El Paso Locomotive defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.54

El Paso Locomotive attack 1.14 + Austin Bold defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Austin Bold scores more
46%
level
25%
El Paso Locomotive scores more
28%

Austin Bold at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Austin Bold will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Austin Bold 0–1 El Paso Locomotive

El Paso Locomotive beat Austin Bold 1-0 in USL Championship on June 4, 2021.

The match was played at Bold Stadium in Austin.