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Austevoll vs Gneist — 3. Division - Girone 3 2026

Austevoll
Austevoll
Preview
14:00
Gneist
Gneist
9/26/20263. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Round 21
49%
Austevoll
model favours
49%20%31%
2–1
likely score
80%
over 2.5 goals
78%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Austevoll49%
×Draw20%
Gneist31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austevoll
2.42
Gneist
1.92

Austevoll creates 26% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Austevoll
1.67
Gneist
1.67

allows per match

Austevoll
2.17
Gneist
3.17

finishing

Austevoll+0.00on par
Gneist+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austevoll ↓

Gneist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Austevoll or draw
69%
Austevoll or Gneist
80%
Draw or Gneist
51%

Winning margin

Austevoll wins by 2+
30%
Gneist wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Austevoll 1+ goals
91%
Austevoll 2+ goals
69%
Austevoll 3+ goals
43%
Gneist 1+ goals
85%
Gneist 2+ goals
57%
Gneist 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Austevoll (draw refunded)
61%
Gneist (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austevoll at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Gneist away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austevoll attack 1.67 + Gneist defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.42

Gneist attack 1.67 + Austevoll defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Austevoll scores more
49%
level
20%
Gneist scores more
31%

Austevoll at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Austevoll will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Austevoll
WWDLW
Gneist
LLWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Austevoll face Gneist (3. Division - Girone 3)

3. Division - Girone 3 returns with Austevoll hosting Gneist. Match starts September 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.